Entirely preventable tragedies will be the hallmark of the next few years.
Think of the young man that immolated himself in Tunisia when police tipped his fruit cart over due to his failure to produce a license to sell fruit in the street.
The arithmetic of our predicament is clear. The Western political construct precludes the election of anyone that might want to do what needs to be done. Therefore, we will just carry on doing exactly what has been done for the past forty years with the exception that the diminishing marginal utility of debt guarantees that we’ll have to do it in spades.
A global conflict is a lock.
If you currently have children aged 10 to 25 or if you are a man aged 20 to 40 and if you are a national of any of the Western countries and are still resident in the West, I can only suggest you take yourself and/or your kids away and seek temporary residence in a country other than your own country of nationality. Better still, take yourselves out of the EU or the USA all together. There will be a global war and something akin to the draft will be instituted in Western countries.
The stuff revolutions are made of (a re-re-post)
TheThe stuff revolutions are made of
I think it is by now a foregone conclusion that before the end of this year, regardless of what official statistics may show, most countries in the West will have to contend with unemployment in excess of 15% in real terms. It can be argued that at least the USA is already approaching that level and Spain, Greece and Italy aren’t far behind if not alrady at that level too. That in itself is cause for serious concern for governments.
As unemployment grows and, necessarily, as the credit market collapses, inflation and demand collapse too engendering lower earnings and therefore lower tax revenue for municipalities, states and the government. As unemployment grows and the ability of governments to raise finance is diminished (rating agencies lowering credit worthyness of sovereign debt), government will have to redirect resources towards maintaining those promises and services the absence of which would more readily indicate that not all is well with the state: i.e. pension payments and any monetary disbursments perceived directly by the public. This of course will drain resources from departments such as the postal service, road works, civil administration, education, forestry services, fire fighting, international aid and so forth.
Naturally, this will not be an event but a process whereby services will be gradually curtailed in order to conserve liquidity and pay those direct disbursements to the public. At some point though, something may happen to trigger the anger of the masses. It could be the death of a child because an ambulance did not show up in time or the death of a bunch of passengers on a bus or train due to absence of safety infrastructure or its state of disrepair. The trigger is not what matters; anything will do. What matters is that when unemployment is high, savings are low and prospects hazy, the masses get twitchy and can go on a rampage for any number of reasons. Politicians and administration officials don’t need me to tell them that even in a recession, let alone a depression, maintaining social harmony is a tall order particularly when the shenanigans of the power elite come to light as they inevitably do – that’s because as the tide goes out, you get to see who was swimming naked (think Madoff but count on many more to come out down the road).
So, before we get to that stage which, in the current environment, could be as soon as the end of this year, governments will have to do something to shift the attention of the masses and keep them focused on something, or someone, that will be made out to be a threat to their well being. Therefore, unless some very bright government minion comes up with a brilliant solution to kick inflation (this post was written over two years ago when my use of the word “inflation” was often ambiguous – in this particular case, the word inflation refers to asset prices) up the ass and send it soaring again soon, that will be all she wrote folks.
War will be upon us sooner than you can imagine.