Posts Tagged ‘social unrest’

The stuff revolutions are made of… a re-re-re-re-post

April 4, 2012

Entirely preventable tragedies will be the hallmark of the next few years.

Think of the young man that immolated himself in Tunisia when police tipped his fruit cart over due to his failure to produce a license to sell fruit in the street.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/syntagma-square-suicide-note-ends-call-young-greek-people-hang-traitors

The arithmetic of our predicament is clear. The Western political construct precludes the election of anyone that might want to do what needs to be done. Therefore, we will just carry on doing exactly what has been done for the past forty years with the exception that the diminishing marginal utility of debt guarantees that we’ll have to do it in spades.

A global conflict is a lock.

If you currently have children aged 10 to 25 or if you are a man aged 20 to 40 and if you are a national of any of the Western countries and are still resident in the West, I can only suggest you take yourself and/or your kids away and seek temporary residence in a country other than your own country of nationality. Better still, take yourselves out of the EU or the USA all together. There will be a global war and something akin to the draft will be instituted in Western countries.

The stuff revolutions are made of (a re-re-post)

TheThe stuff revolutions are made of

By guidoamm

I think it is by now a foregone conclusion that before the end of this year, regardless of what official statistics may show, most countries in the West will have to contend with unemployment in excess of 15% in real terms. It can be argued that at least the USA is already approaching that level and Spain, Greece and Italy aren’t far behind if not alrady at that level too. That in itself is cause for serious concern for governments.

As unemployment grows and, necessarily, as the credit market collapses, inflation and demand collapse too engendering lower earnings and therefore lower tax revenue for municipalities, states and the government. As unemployment grows and the ability of governments to raise finance is diminished (rating agencies lowering credit worthyness of sovereign debt), government will have to redirect resources towards maintaining those promises and services the absence of which would more readily indicate that not all is well with the state: i.e. pension payments and any monetary disbursments perceived directly by the public. This of course will drain resources from departments such as the postal service, road works, civil administration, education, forestry services, fire fighting, international aid and so forth.

Naturally, this will not be an event but a process whereby services will be gradually curtailed in order to conserve liquidity and pay those direct disbursements to the public. At some point though, something may happen to trigger the anger of the masses. It could be the death of a child because an ambulance did not show up in time or the death of a bunch of passengers on a bus or train due to absence of safety infrastructure or its state of disrepair. The trigger is not what matters; anything will do. What matters is that when unemployment is high, savings are low and prospects hazy, the masses get twitchy and can go on a rampage for any number of reasons. Politicians and administration officials don’t need me to tell them that even in a recession, let alone a depression, maintaining social harmony is a tall order particularly when the shenanigans of the power elite come to light as they inevitably do – that’s because as the tide goes out, you get to see who was swimming naked (think Madoff but count on many more to come out down the road).

So, before we get to that stage which, in the current environment, could be as soon as the end of this year, governments will have to do something to shift the attention of the masses and keep them focused on something, or someone, that will be made out to be a threat to their well being. Therefore, unless some very bright government minion comes up with a brilliant solution to kick inflation (this post was written over two years ago when my use of the word “inflation” was often ambiguous – in this particular case, the word inflation refers to asset prices) up the ass and send it soaring again soon, that will be all she wrote folks.

War will be upon us sooner than you can imagine.

Tic, toc… tic, toc…

September 9, 2011

As outlined in these pages over the past few years, the hammer is about to strike the 12th hour…

Prospect Of Empty Coffers Looms Large

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_08/09/2011_405503

The gravity of the situation is indicated by the fact that the government [of Greece] has frozen all disbursements apart from salaries and pensions.

If you think only Greece is in such dire straits you have anothing thing coming… can you sing the Jaws-is-lurking tune?

Count down to war ticking inexorably away….

 

Not quite an “I told you so!” moment…

July 27, 2011

… but neither are we too far away from it…me thinks…

http://www.cityofboston.gov/news/Default.aspx?id=5212

Excerpt emphasis added:

“Joint federal military training exercises will take place within and around the Boston area between July 26th and August 5th. Military personnel will conduct training exercises to ensure the military’s ability to operate in urban environments,…”

To ensure the military’s ability to operate in urban environments??? Why should the army operate in urban environments? That’s where civic institutions are supposed to operate. Indeed that is exactly the reason we have things like the police or the Civil Defense or the Fire Department. The army is meant for defensive/offensive purposes against an outside enemy only. It is a blunt tool…

Then again, if you have been keeping tabs on things in the recent past, this turnout of events may follow a logic…

https://guidoromero.wordpress.com/2011/06/09/fascism-inexorable-ascent/

Mobs roaming the streets

June 9, 2011

My “tic,toc… tic, toc” posts of the recent past must now give way to the proverbial resounding “boing” of high noon.

Gangs are now openly threatening our city centers in Europe and in the USA.

Count down to global conflict very much on track for 2012/2015

http://www.businessinsider.com/third-world-america-2011-forget-fast-tracking-to-anarchy-weve-arrived-2011-6

Memorial Day Mobs: Boston, Nashville, Long Island, Miami, Rochester, and Charlotte

Wildings occurred in other cities on Memorial Day weekend in what may have been coordinated flash wildings. Gangs swarmed beaches in Boston, Nashville, Long Island, Miami, Rochester, and Charlotte in what some believe was a social media coordinated effort. (Hat tip: Second City Cop)

Read more: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/janet-tavakoli/third-world-america-2011_b_873200.html#ixzz1OktjB3wK

What you can do

January 16, 2011

If you like many today, feel the Western democratic political process has failed you. If you, like many others, feel you have been taken advantage of by your leaders. If you, like many others, feel you are enslaved by an economic system that exploits you and gives nothing back. If you, like many others, feel there must be an alternative.

Here is what you can do and it won’t cost you any more than US$50. Not only that but it is also legal and safe. No need to take to the streets and risk being shot by an increasingly detached, tetchy and arrogant government.

Read on.

If you follow this blog you know I contend the monetary system is upstream of all human dynamics. Thus our entire socio/economic construct inscribes itself within our monetary system. Similarly, you will also know that the choice and management of the monetary system falls outside of the democratic process. Ergo, not only do politicians impose the system upon society but they also retain the right to manage it by decree.

So much for capitalism or, indeed, for our “open” societies based on democratic principles.

Western politicians have imposed a debt based fiat monetary system upon our societies. In the USA it started in 1913 and then from 1971 it gradually spread to all other countries.

The problem is that debt based fiat money is predicated on inflation. But inflation is a dynamic that conforms to the law of diminishing marginal utility so that greater degrees of inflation are progressively required in order to obtain the same result. In this case the “result” we seek is GDP expansion. So that in  order to keep GDP on a positive trajectory in a debt based fiat monetary system, government must necessarily induce progressively greater degrees of inflation in the economy.

But since inflation conforms to the law of diminishing marginal utility, it follows that the effect of inflation on GDP expansion must inherently be limited mathematically.

https://guidoromero.wordpress.com/2009/11/07/the-utility-of-a-fiat-monetary-system/

As the effect of inflation gradually wanes as it is mathematically true it will, government must necessarily intervene in the economy directly and at progressively greater and deeper degrees till government becomes the largest actor in the economy. This dynamic is accompanied by increasingly more severe and pervasive political crisis that is necessarily always accompanied by expedient politics, aberrant economic regulation and increasing degrees of corruption. As this dynamic evolves, social unrest becomes more pervasive and increasingly violent until it morphs into organized social unrest i.e. revolution.

History is replete with examples of what happens when a sovereign currency is debased.

The clearest indication that our current monetary system is pushing the mathematical limits is the endemic and pervasive corruption that permeates Western governments and institutions. It is clear today that the civic and political mechanisms that have made the West the envy of developing societies around the world have lost their intended function. Western governing elites no longer represent the aspirations and the hopes of their people and are instead beholden to select banks, corporations and unions in an attempt at maintaining the spending power of their office and that of their cronies in an attempt at perpetuating their own personal self interest.

I suppose that one of the clearest and most glaring examples of the incestuous and self serving nature of Western governments is given to us by none other than current US President Barak Hussein Obama whom, despite his pledge of change that carried him to the White House, just nominated another bank executive to the position of White House Staff thus not only reinforcing but also confirming and shouting it out loud from the roof tops that it is the banks that today pull the strings of puppet politicians.

But enough ranting.

Democratic politics is no longer a viable option for the common people. So, other than a violent uprising a la Tunisia, what can everyday folks do?

The easiest, most effective and devastating way to affect the political dynamic today LEGALLY is to exploit the weakness of the monetary system.

I say “legal” because it is still legal to suggest what I am about to suggest. However, beware! In Holland for example, a law is being debated that would criminalize the mere act of suggesting something similar to what I am about to suggest.

WHAT YOU CAN DO

Debt based fiat money is predicated on the constant expansion of inflation. Inflation can only be expanded if the credit markets can be expanded.

You want to bring down currently sitting politicians and institutions?

Then you can prevent the expansion of the credit markets.

The easiest way to do that is to start accumulating gold and silver ingots or coins. We are not talking large sums here. If every person on earth acquired one silver ingot/coin and one gold ingot/coin that would suffice to bring the whole house of cards down. We are talking of an investment of US$50 per person at the most. Fifty Dollars!!!

If every single citizen in the West were to purchase one ingot or coin in silver and/or gold, that would deal a very serious blow to the major global banks. Take down the banks and you’ve paralyzed the political process.

If you really wanted to push the boat out there are other things you could do. Once again. These are so far all absolutely legal ways to put a very quick stop to the entire farce that is our political process.

Withdraw all your savings from the major global banks. Open accounts in smaller banks or cooperatives or just hold on to the cash. By withdrawing your savings you force banks !

to curtail their leveraged exposure.

WARNING!!!

These are very simple but lethally effective ways to put a stop to our governments and their shenanigans. But like everything in life, each action has an equal reaction.

Taking down the banks and paralyzing the political process is easy. In fact it is so easy most people cannot believe it is possible. But it is.

The downside of taking down the banks is that we’ll create dislocations in a myriad sectors of the economy and life in general. Things like public transport or trash collection might be terminated for example. Fuel deliveries might be disrupted. Road and bridge maintenance could be adversely affected. Pension funds might blow up.

Any of the above is possible and more.

However, there is a rationale for taking bitter medicine now rather than letting things plod along as they are.

By letting things plod along, not only are our social services and social safety nets already compromised but there is a more than reasonable certainty that our “leaders” are going to plunge us into a world war.

Essentially, as the monetary system is hitting the buffers and politics have become incestuous and corrupt, social expenditure must be curtailed. Curtailing social expenditure at the same time that the governing elite is caught neck deep in corruption will lead to social unrest and eventually to revolution.

But I guarantee that our “leaders” will not let revolution happen in the “developed civilized” West. Before social unrest morphs into revolution, our leaders will have packaged a nice war somewhere to fight an evil empire that ostensibly threatens our way of life.

The choice today is: bring down the political system legally and lets take the consequences of the subsequent dislocation that is sure to follow … or … plod along as we are doing today and let our “leaders” send our children to the slaughter along with countless and nameless children of parents in faraway lands.

A bon entendeur…

Hallmarks of absurdity

December 12, 2010

Leave it to the politicians to lead the way.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8194351/EU-wastes-millions-of-euros-on-lavish-anti-poverty-meeting.html

The European Commission has been condemned for spending three million euros hosting a lavish anti-poverty development conference for 6,000 people in Brussels.

What is certain is that the days when “condemnation” was sufficient to dissipate political and social discontent are coming to an end. Ever larger numbers of dispossessed, unemployed, homeless and just plain pissed off people are inexorably beefing up the ranks of popular revolts in Greece, France, Spain, the UK and even in Germany where following seemingly unrelated political decisions to build a railway station and allow a nuclear waste convoy to proceed to its destination have inflamed the masses. In fact, German police were confronted with such pitched resistance that they eventually had to both call a truce with the protesters and ask for major league games to be suspended on a Sunday because they were outnumbered and exhausted by the protesters.

Countdown to global war is is now approaching “1” real fast.

No joy in confirmation (re-post)

November 12, 2010

No joy in confirmation…

By guidoamm

Greece, Spain, Latvia, California, the UK, Italy… it could be anyone.  It really does not matter. What matters is that this is the clearest indication yet that our monetary system has hit a brick wall; a mathematical brick wall that is enshrined in a monetary logic predicated on accelerating credit and money creation at rates that far exceed the rate of growth of the economy.

The rationale for the use of an unchecked fiat monetary system is well established. Fine. Now we have to deal with the political and social consequences of said system. Namely, when the monetary system hits the wall as it did in the 30s and again in the late 60s and again today, the result is always the same i.e. excess debt, gross industrial overcapacity thus rising unemployment, declining purchasing power,  implosion of asset values with the direct result of a collapse of state tax revenues.

Under these circumstances, rolling over debt becomes increasingly difficult till the moment it becomes impossible. Try this for size. Just in the current year 2010 the USA will have to roll over something in the region of US$450Billion. That’s just the USA.

If you cannot spot the problem, here it is. In a US$ based fiat monetary system predicated on floating exchange rates as we have today globally, sovereign currencies derive their value from the value of other currencies. Hence, sovereign currencies derive their value from other sovereigns buying each other’s sovereign debt.

$450Billion is pretty much a whole chunk of the entire global sovereign ability to buy debt. This means that in order to succeed, the US government must attract virtually the entirety of budgets of most sovereigns thus leaving no funds available for countries to buy any other country’s debt…. ergo… the floating exchange rate mechanism as contemplated by our current monetary system is broken…. kaput; dead; it is no more; it is pushing up daisies;

Where do we go from here?

If our politicians were a sober well meaning bunch, I’d say we have nothing to worry about. A bit of austerity for a few years and we’ll be on our way again.

But politicians being what they are and operating in a legal and political environment that is geared towards ensuring expediency over efficiency or intrinsic value, I say a world war is a lock-in.

The problem starts with the inability of government to finance its requirements via tax revenue.  Thus government increasingly relies on the capital markets. As even the capital markets begin to show the strain, governments must curtail public spending.

http://cbs13.com/local/tracy.911.calls.2.1502690.html

Curtailing public spending brings you this:

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Greece-Mass-Strike-Over-Tough-Economic-Measures-Sees-Country-Grind-To-A-Halt/Article/201002415558481?lpos=World_News_Second_Home_Page_Feature_Teaser_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_15558481_Greece%3A_Mass_Strike_Over_Tough_Economic_Measures_Sees_Country_Grind_To_A_Halt_

http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/feb2010/gb20100224_114271.htm

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/europes-winter-of-discontent-1908527.html

As you curtail public spending and as public anger rises, and as the shenanigans of the power elite keep coming to light(http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/02/24/88119/as-insurer-hiked-rates-39-executives.html

the public is sure to turn violent.

As the public turns violent, governments take the brunt of the violence and political control may be lost and anarchy and/or revolution ensue.

That’s the point at which governments must have done their homework well in advance and prepared a bogeyman somewhere off their shores so as to be able to, the moment come, turn the attention of the masses away from their own failings and the failings or our entire economic/social/political models.

Count-down to global war… tic, toc… tic, toc…

November 10, 2010

Thoughts of demonstration, passive resistance and eventually all out rebellion are crossing the minds of more and more people across the West.

We have entered the final phase of this monetary system that since 1913 gradually spread from the USA, t0 Europe and then to the rest of the world. Classical monetary policy has lost traction which means:

– locked and/or declining credit markets

– financial value far in excess of underlying economic intrinsic value (derivatives are instruments worth several times the value of the item they are based upon – the BIS estimates that derivative notional value outstanding is US$650Trillion however, global GDP is barely US$50Trillion. Worse still one third of total notional value is concentrated in five global banks: Citi, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs)

– excess production capacity

– increasing unemployment

– decreasing tax revenue at local, state and federal level

– thus decrease capacity for the state to provide social services

This mixture results in a revaluation lower of any assets brought about by declining consumption.

In turn this means that the pyramid of derivatives that has been built on whatever tangible underlying assets exist must be drastically reduced.

This means that someone has to pay-out some significant amounts of money.

Which in turn means higher unemployment and still lower tax revenue for the state but a concomitant extraordinary rise in sovereign debt.

This means the state will have less and less money to provide social expenditure but must find sufficient funds to keep the banks afloat in a bid to maintain the whole rickety structure standing as long as possible.

You let this go on long enough and you will end up with a revolution on your hands.

Hence the need for a war. But this next war won’t be your garden variety inventory war like we’ve had since Korea. This one will be an old fashioned war where civilians will either be packed-off to the front or, if old or not able bodied, will be absorbed by civilian industry that will be converted to war industry. Food and energy rationing will be part and parcel of the new normal for a few years.

The alternative to a global war of course is to let revolution happen at home. And that’s something Western politicians cannot contemplate.

War it is.

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/11/how-to-save-america-in-one-week.html

The article offers a third way. But the only legal and bloodless third way available to the general public, is to wrest the controls of the monetary system from the clutches of the central bank and return it in the hands of the representative of the people. In the USA it would be congress. In Europe it would be the various treasury departments of the state. There is a way to force the monetary system to return under the control of its rightful overseers; it is legal and it is bloodless. But for this option to be viable, it requires the general public to understand how our monetary system works, what the implications of this particular monetary system are, what the alternatives are and, above all, it requires the public to realize that this particular system we are currently on was imposed unilaterally and arbitrarily upon society by incumbent politicians with nary a debate anywhere, ever.

Henry Ford famously said: “If people understood the banking system, they would revolt.”

The monetary system belongs to the people. If interest must be paid on money, it should be paid to the state rather than a third party that operates for profit like banks do.

Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Says National Debt Biggest Threat to National Security

August 29, 2010

With thanks to Zero Hedge

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chairman-joint-chiefs-staff-says-national-debt-biggest-threat-national-security

And that is exactly the reason we are about to be plunged into a war of global proportions.

To be clear, the past 100 years of monetary policy instigated and abetted by a select group banks is a deliberate mechanism predicated on the constant expansion of debt. As this policy inherently conforms to the law of diminishing returns there is a mathematical point past which more debt no longer can produce enough nominal revenue to service the debt. Ergo; we are technically bankrupt. That is, we can create more money but the traditional mechanism that is supposed to inject this new money in the economy is broken and no longer generates the economic activity required to feed state tax revenue thus by extension Federal revenue declines too.

Initial inevitable response is the following (again, with great thanks to Zero Hedge):

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-government-matches-every-dollar-tax-revenue-dollar-new-debt

Excerpt:

  • Total net debt issued since September 2008: $3,351 billion (from $10.025TR to $13.376TR)
  • Gross tax receipts since September 2008: $3,185 billion. Note this is not net of refunds. Should one exclude the $660 billion in refunds issued over the same period, the net contribution by taxpayers is just over $2.5 trillion, meaning that the value of each dollar of debt issued is a quarter greater than each dollar in taxpayer revenues.
  • This number would be somewhat offset by Corporate tax revenues, which over the same period amount to $440 billion gross and $230 billion net of corporate tax refunds.

Our governments are trapped. The choices are few and well defined and other than a war of aggression, all other choices are politically unpalatable at home in the ostensibly “civilized” West.

In accounting terms, what needs to occur is an immediate reduction of government expenditure and an immediate and drastic reduction in new debt issuance. Particularly in the USA, military expenditure must be drastically cut. Remember here that the USA’s military budget is larger than the military budgets of all developed nations combined. But cutting military budgets alone won’t do the trick particularly in Europe. Furthermore, since governments in the West have liberally helped themselves from social security funds that were ostensibly set aside for society (when governments borrow from social security these sums do not show in national debt statistics) this means that a very large chunk of social expenditure too needs to be curtailed. But as evidenced by Greece and soon by other Western civilized and developed countries, society does not take well to having their handouts taken away particularly when, in the particular case of pension contributions, these funds were supposed to have been set aside.

Revolution in the West now moving into the ralm of the probable?

August 26, 2010

… and it is not me saying so…

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/7964328/Fresh-flight-to-Swiss-franc-as-Europes-bond-strains-return.html

Excerpts with comments (emphasis added):

No country in the developed world apart form Japan has ever seen 10-year yields drop below 1pc. Rates remained significantly higher during the two great depressions of the 1870s and the 1930s.

The above just highlights the unprecedented nature of this crisis as well as the unprecedented nature of government futile, if not populist and criminal, intervention that punishes the many to reward the few.

Morgan Stanley said investors are taking a risk buying sovereign bonds at this level, arguing that debt-to-GDP ratios in the developed world greatly understate the true liabilities and aging costs that threat public finances. “It’s not whether governments will default, but how, and vis-a-vis whom,” said Arnaud Mares in a client report.

And for the piece de resistance:

Mr Mares said most Western states are in “deep negative equity” and cannot hope to pay their debts. Bondholders have so far been “fully sheltered from loss” through the crisis but this is politically untenable. The rest of society will not suffer austerity for ever to pay the coupons.

The next phase of the crisis will see revenge by all those who have already taken a big hit, or expect to do so: whether under water on their mortgages, unemployed, dependent on health support, or state employees. Democracy will have its way.

Next stop: a world war. Just because it does pay to riot –

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100007444/it-pays-to-riot-in-europe/

The great unwashed cannot be asked to understand how and why a state can be and is out of money. The great unwashed that live in the West are oblivious to the fact that the one single dynamic that shapes their lives has been imposed unilaterally by government; that is the monetary system. The great unwashed cannot fathom how the social promises that government made over the past century are but a necessary byproduct of the monetary system. The great unwashed certainly cannot understand that a fiat monetary system is limited mathematically. Heck! Professionals in the banking and finance industry don’t understand that either so why should anyone else.

This is as close to the End Times as we’ll ever get folks.