Posts Tagged ‘civil unrest’

On the brink of a new age of rage

May 22, 2010

Not my words. This is the Financial Times that says so.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4526d52c-6506-11df-b648-00144feab49a.html

Excerpt:

Far be it for me to make a dicey situation dicier but you can’t smell the sulphur in the air right now and not think we might be on the threshold of an age of rage.

Good to know I’m not the only crank out there.

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JHC!!! This sort of news on a Saturday is peculiar….

May 8, 2010

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100508/ap_on_hi_te/as_thailand_politics_censorship

The country’s information minister stares down from billboards along Bangkok’s expressways, warning that “Bad websites are detrimental to society” and should be reported to a special hot line.”

Given the Patriot Acts and the Lisbon Treaty (which gave us a whole new layer of unelected – ergo unaccountable – politicians) how far behind can the West be on these tactics?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100508/ap_on_re_as/as_thailand_politics

Thailand’s government warned protesters Saturday that more violence could erupt if the entrenched demonstrations that have paralyzed areas of the capital for nearly two months did not end soon.”

Apparently, the government feels it has run out of options and is playing its last card: military intervention. Do you remember that thing about the 3rd infantry, 1st brigade Combat Team that was deployed back to the US from Iraq…???… Things that make you go “hmmm”!!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100508/ap_on_re_as/as_pakistan_missile_test

Pakistan successfully test-fired two ballistic missiles Saturday capable of carrying nuclear warheads, the military said, as the Islamic nation’s leader urged the world to recognize it as a legitimate nuclear power.”

the bomb seems to the the latest in must have accessories… a bit like Hummers a few years back… only more aggressive….

Jeeez!!… I only sat at the computer to check the weather for tonight and I get slapped in the face with increasing posturing and aggressive rhetoric coming from all sides…

Oh yeah! And we’re out of dosh in the West… should make for interesting times much to the delight of our Chinese friends….

Remember my “tic,toc” posts?

May 5, 2010

Do a search on my blog and read any of the “tic,toc” or any of the “curtailing social expenditure…” posts.

And now the reality. Make no mistake. This will not be confined to Greece. This is what deflation does. Mobs have started roaming the streets looking for politicians and bankers to lynch.

The count down to global war has just sped up.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8661385.stm

At least three people have been killed in the Greek capital as protesters set fire to a bank during a general strike over planned austerity measures.”

It is inevitable… (end of the inflationary cycle)

April 27, 2010

Two Chicago state reps: Bring in the National Guard

http://www.chicagobreakingnews.com/2010/04/state-reps-want-to-fight-violence-with-national-guards-help.html

For as long as the authorities can induce credit and monetary inflation into the system, the debt load can be expanded thus the state can appear to be able to meet its obligations like social security expenditure or unemployment benefits or interest on its sovereign debt for example. During this period of time, alarmists keep warning that unfunded liabilities will eventually bite the state in the ass. However, the day on which the state gets bitten in the ass is at some unspecified point in the future. And for as long as inflation is running on a positive trend, that day can be postponed.

Inflation can be kept on a positive trajectory by various means. However, inflation is an exponential dynamic thus whatever means are employed to keep it on a positive trend, will necessarily need to be ever more drastic than previous attempts.

Since globally today we are all pretty much on a US$ fiat monetary system based on floating exchange rates, we all have to contend with an inflationary dynamic that is 100 years old; that is since the inception of the modern Dollar in 1913. During this time, inflation has stalled twice; once in the late 20s and once in the late 60s. Both periods were characterized by excessive debts and excessive industrial capacity. However, whereas the crisis of the 20s can be reasonably argued resulted in WWII, the crisis of the 60s resulted in the assimilation of the then major currencies into the US$ (abrogation of Bretton Woods and adoption of floating exchange rates). In turn, inflation was then stoked by assimilating other currencies via globalization.

Today, inflation has hit the wall once again.

Unless someone somewhere comes up with a brilliant idea to kick-start the inflationary cycle, this time around the resolution will likely take the form of a global conflict.

The reasoning for this dark prediction is as follows. Fiat money is predicated on inflation. In the absence of inflation, fiat money has no reason for being and the ability of the state to spend liberally (on social, scientific or military ventures for example) is hindered. Thus inflation is the conditio-sine-qua-non of opting for a fiat monetary system.

That being the case, the state has a vested interest in maintaining inflation on a positive trajectory. But, inflation is exponential in nature thus it is necessarily limited. The rub is that the point at which the state can no longer induce inflation is the point at which social costs are rising but tax revenue is declining. Since this is also the point at which the state can no longer expand debt (the Fed has been the single largest buyer of its own sovereign debt in the past year… yup! That’s: the Fed issued and purchased its own sovereign paper albeit through primary dealers to whom it gives money free of charge anyway), declining tax revenue and rising social costs spell sovereign bankruptcy.

At the social level, that is an explosive juncture. The end of the inflationary cycle, is sure to bring civil unrest and, eventually, revolution.

The trouble is that whereas in the late 60s we had room for maneuver and we could feed the US$ monetary pyramid from the bottom by assimilating new currencies, this time around, in the absence of any other currency of significance that we can bring in on the US$ fiat monetary system, the options are few and well defined.

In order to be able to restart the inflationary dynamic we must absolutely write-down debt and deplete industrial and commercial capacity. Nothing else will do.

But, of course, the moral beacons that our leaders are, rather than coming out and telling it like it is our governments are feverishly at work to build straw men in the form of “foreign evils”. Thus the dark prediction that rather than face the music and admitting the limits of the Western monetary (ergo socio/economic) models, they will throw us into a global conflict. And this one, as I never tire to reiterate, is a conflict that is just around a corner – 2013/2015

In terms of building straw men, nothing would be better suited than another false flag event. In this regard, I’ve come across this today:

http://www.veteranstoday.com/2010/04/24/gordon-duff-stage-being-set-for-dirty-bomb-false-flag/

You may think Gordon Duff is hysterical and delusional but history is on his side. When our governments need something to happen, they will make it happen by hook or by crook – look up the Opium Wars, Pearl Harbor, Bay of Tonkin, My Lai as well as, very likely, much more recent events…

Unusual troop movements

April 22, 2010

If you followed my rants on Facebook many moons ago, you will remember I had posted a note regarding a US Army brigade that had been sent home from Iraq to train for “civilian” operations. The article appeared in the Army Times sometime in October 2008.

http://www.armytimes.com/news/2008/09/army_homeland_090708w/

The question at the time was why even think of using the Army for civilian operations? It is not like we don’t have numerous entities and agencies that are supposed to cover what the 3rd infantry, 1st brigade Combat Team is sent home to do ostensibly. The army is a fairly blunt tool and not at all adapted to operate in a civilian, urban environment in the West.

Here is an opinion as to why we should be weary of using the Army in developed societies:

http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=9869

Anyway, since then, that tidbit of information lay dormant … till now…

Now, I can’t find an actual official source other than a rumor or hearsay if you will. However, I’ve come across this article today:

http://www.examiner.com/x-37620-Conservative-Examiner~y2010m4d13-Special-army-unit-ready-to-be-deployed-on-American-soil-just-before-Nov-elections

The rumor has it that: “This afternoon a local radio talk show host reported that he had been in contact with a member of the military.  This military source stated that the armed forces have been alerted to the strong possibility that civil unrest may occur in the United States this summer, prior to the midterm elections of 2010.

The source described this as ‘our long, hot summer of discontent’ that could be eerily reminiscent of the summer of 1968 when riots broke out in many of our largest cities.

If you follow this blog, you know I contend we’ve reached the end of the inflationary cycle. If I am right, this means that by now government is the single largest actor in the economy (check), that profits are concentrated in the finance industry (check), tax revenue at state and federal level is waning (check), social expenditure is curtailed (check), scandals will come to light on a monthly basis (check) and unemployment keeps rising (check).

So that if I am right, civil unrest is not at all an impossibility and revolution moves up the scale of probabilities.

If I am right and we have reached the end of the inflationary cycle, then obviously some other officials know this too and have known for at the very least as long as I have known; that would be about five years. In this case, advance preparation is exactly what I too would do.

The thing is that the inflationary dynamic moves over very long periods of time. Since we are all on a US$ fiat monetary system based on floating exchange rates, we must all contend with an inflationary dynamic that goes back to the inception of the modern Dollar in 1913. That’s just shy of 100 years ago.

If indeed this is the end of our ability to induce inflation into the monetary system, then the break-down of society is guaranteed and, following through this line of thought, so is a great dislocation of global proportions that this time around, in my opinion, will take the form of a global conflict.

So that if I am right and if I were in the shoes of the leadership, I too would be preparing well in advance by small increments so as not to make a big splash in the media. I mean, you don’t just redeploy a brigade without anyone noticing and if you do so in a hurry then people panic. This is may very well be the application of the principle of the boiling frog at work here.

Curtailing public services as precursor to war… the sequel continues… (Los Angeles)

April 10, 2010

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=az.UIyizQj7I

Excerpt:

April 6 (Bloomberg) — Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa called for shutting down “nonessential” city services two days a week, after Controller Wendy Greuel said the municipality’s cash may run out next month. The plan would target services that don’t generate revenue, …”

Shutting down non essential servicers; ok. However, what they should be really doing is shutting down those services that even though generate revenue, cost more than revenue. Those are the services that are killing the budget.

Anyway, along with Walmart slashing prices on consumer goods:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aTwYV9yABurU

… the inescapable conclusion is that state tax revenue is reduced further still. So individual states are going to need to cut a lot more services.

Add to that the fact that property taxes constitute a significant chunk of state tax revenues. But property tax rates are assessed only every 3 years or so. Now, considering that since the peak in 2007 on average real estate values have dropped at least 30% across the US, this is one more shoe that is about to drop with regards to state tax revenues and, in turn, for federal tax revenue.

Tic, toc… tic, toc… tic, toc…

And here you go… (curtailing public spending as precursor to war)

April 9, 2010

As the now famous series of Curtailing Public Spending as Precursor to War on this blog progresses, poster “Eldorado” on the VOY forum brings this nugget to our attention:

http://www.wkyc.com/news/local/news_article.aspx?storyid=133951&catid=3

Excerpt (emphasis added):

JEFFERSON — In the ongoing financial crisis in Ashtabula County, the Sheriff’s Department has been cut from 112 to 49 deputies.  With deputies assigned to transport prisoners, serve warrants and other duties, only one patrol car is assigned to patrrol the entire county of 720 square miles. […] Ashtabula County Common Pleas Judge Alfred Mackey was asked what residents should do to protect themselves and their families with the severe cutback in law enforcement. “Arm themselves,” the judge said. “Be very careful, be vigilant, get in touch with your neighbors, because we’re going to have to look after each other.

And that’s exactly the type of thing you don’t want to do when a crisis is developing. That’s because if the “authorities” should not be able to pull us out of this crisis anytime soon, not only will you have a lot of angry people on your hands but you’ll have a lot of angry people that are armed… not a good thing…

Now read the following article:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_concealed_weapons_arizona

Excerpt:

PHOENIX – The Arizona House voted Thursday to make the state the third in the nation to allow people to carry concealed weapons without a permit, sending the governor a bill that would allow Arizonans to forego background checks and classes that are now required.”

See! This is the thing. Events rarely happen in isolation. Rather, what happens is that a series of seemingly unrelated occurrences eventually coalesce into something greater than the sum of its parts.

As the economic crisis develops, tax revenue declines just at the time that social costs are rising. If at the same time the monetary authorities find it difficult to induce inflation into the system as is the case today then government has no choice but to curtail public services and, eventually, terminate some programs.

However, as the inevitable abuse of power, scandals and malfeasance gradually come to light (i.e. AIG, Goldman Sachs, Fannie Mae, Lehman…) students, the unemployed, the destitute, the marginalized and then, eventually, the employed, the retired and the elderly will not take kindly to the new juncture.

So, before mobs start roaming the streets looking for some politician or banker to lynch, we’ll have us our war… the global one this one…because I can guarantee that no main stream politician in the West can ever even countenance the idea to take responsibility for what is happening. Much better to build straw men of evil foreigners and religious nuts that ostensibly threaten our liberty… so that when the shit hits the fan, we can just whip the mobs up into a murderous frenzy and pack them off to the front to fight for their presumably desirable way of life…

… and so the wheel turns…

Gold looking awfully alluring still and ever more…

A bon entendeur…

Eh! No sooner am I finished typing the above that AP reports the following:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100409/ap_on_go_co/us_congress_threats

I wish I was wrong but I have to tell you guys this. You better brush up on your self sufficiency skills… sooner rather than later…

As to why “democracy” can only lead to bankruptcy…

January 7, 2010

Though unwitting, this is the clearest elucidation as to why our political system loosely defined as “democratic” is bound to spend itself into oblivion.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6942680/Euro-brinkmanship-escalates-as-ECB-shuts-door-on-Greek-bail-out.html

Excerpt:

“[the ruling party] PASOK made wildly unrealistic pledges to secure election last autumn and is now in the uncomfortable position of having to tear up its manifesto. This is potentially dangerous in a Left-leaning political culture where people have yet to accept the need for harsh medicine. Mere hints of austerity over the past two years have been enough to set off street riots, while Communist trade unions are already threatening to strike.”

Essentially, on one hand our governments have failed in their fiduciary duty to provide society with proper education. On the other hand, due in large part to this fundamental shortcoming, we have allowed our “leaders” to build a political and economic systems that can only exist provided inflation can be constantly expanded. Thus, politicians will always make outrageous promises in an attempt to garner votes because offering restraint and a reduction in expenditure is guaranteed never to be seen as a viable option.

So, the point at which inflation can no longer be expanded or, more correctly, the point at which forced inflation loses its traditional multiplier effect on nominal values, our political process prevents us from offering the only solution that would help us come out of this jam; that is, a reduction in expenditure thus a reduction in debt.

And so it is that as inflation loses its perceived effect on the expansion of wealth (which is only nominal rather than intrinsic) then governments become bankrupt. To be clear. Western governments have been fundamentally bankrupt for decades. The difference between then and today is that till very recently government could progressively borrow more thus giving the impression of being able to service its financial obligations and its social and military goals.

Today, the debt dynamic is broken. Government is bankrupt. Social expenditure must be and will be curtailed.

Before large numbers of the great unwashed start roaming the streets looking for some politician or banker to lynch, we’ll have us a world war.

I say 2013/2015 latest

Tic, toc…. tic, toc….

December 14, 2009

As all sorts of governments at local, regional and national level are running out of money fast….

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/12/cities-shut-off-streetlamps-to-save.html

… the masses are getting restless…

http://market-ticker.org/archives/1723-The-Consequences-Of-The-Big-Lie.html

Deflation – Massachusetts

October 6, 2009

Massachusetts governmetn to announce emergency budget cuts

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE5916BX20091002